Navigating Stormy Seas: Why cyber threat intelligence often fails today and how wargaming lessons from WWII can improve our odds

Tuesday
 
18
 
March
, 
1:50 pm
 - 
2:30 pm

Speakers

John Karabin

John Karabin

Chief Cyber Security Strategist
McGrathNicol Advisory

Synopsis

In the high-stakes realm of cybersecurity, threat intelligence is the backbone of organizational defences. When executed effectively, it empowers businesses to anticipate and neutralize threats before they escalate. However, when threat intelligence fails, the consequences can be severe, leading to data breaches, financial losses, and irreparable damage to reputation. As cyber threats grow increasingly sophisticated, organizations must avoid complacency and prioritize a proactive, evolving approach to stay ahead of adversaries.

A compelling parallel exists in a little-known story from WWII, where a small group of young women, alongside a retired naval officer, formed a strategic wargaming unit to counter the formidable Nazi submarine threat—the dreaded U-boat. Initially, these U-boats, operating in packs, were responsible for sinking up to 70% of Britain’s merchant navy, cutting the supply chain and bringing the nation to its knees.

Faced with this dire situation, the Western Allies Tactical Unit (WATU) created a strategy group predominantly composed of Women’s Royal Naval Service (WRNS) members, with an average age of 20. By using diverse skills such as accounting and card playing and by integrating live intelligence, decoded signals (from the famous Enigma cypher), and wargaming techniques they developed new and unconventional strategies. Combining these strategies with emerging technologies such as sonar and depth charges, and then teaching this to the Naval command, they ultimately outmaneuvered an enemy that seemed invincible.

The innovative strategies of WWII offer valuable lessons on the importance of adaptability and diverse thinking in combating modern cyber threats. Today's cybersecurity landscape often suffers from outdated threat intelligence due to a lack of regular review and updates. It also over relies on bigger and better speeds and threat feeds, developing an over confidence and potential blindness. Like the intelligence-driven strategies of the past, modern cybersecurity must adopt a dynamic and iterative approach. Threat intelligence should not be a static document; it must be continuously refined as new threats arise. Just as the British Navy turned to the WRNS to craft responses to the U-boat menace, contemporary cybersecurity must leverage diverse skill sets and perspectives.

Drawing from practical experience responding to 100’s of incidents in Australia, this talk will use the forgotten story of the WRNS's to show unconventional thinking and collaboration exemplify how fresh insights can outsmart seemingly insurmountable challenges. By embracing this mindset, organizations can effectively strengthen their cybersecurity posture and enhance their resilience against the evolving threat landscape.

Acknowledgement of Country

We acknowledge the traditional owners and custodians of country throughout Australia and acknowledge their continuing connection to land, waters and community. We pay our respects to the people, the cultures and the elders past, present and emerging.